How NIL has changed college basketball: Numbers deep dive reveals surprising trends, recipe for success

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Many of the same teams and coaches who consistently won in college basketball before the Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) era -- which began July 1, 2021 -- have unsurprisingly continued to thrive in the NIL era. Think Mark Few at Gonzaga or Bill Self at Kansas. A handful of coaches have shown their ability to recruit and run elite programs regardless of circumstance.

But not all of them.

The contrast in success between eras has been starker for some than for others. The NIL era has blunted some programs' success or, in some cases, significantly diminished it. On the flip side, other coaches and programs have surged thanks to improved access to resources and a more level playing field.

Take the following data as an example. Gonzaga, Kansas and Duke -- each of which posted a winning percentage of 80% or higher from the 2000-01 season through 2020-21 -- stood apart from the rest of the sport during that stretch.

The chart below, sorted by winning percentage, shows that over a 20-year span, only four teams won 75% or more of their games. (Data courtesy of Stathead.)

Rank	School	Total games	Wins	Losses	Win %
1	Gonzaga	720	604	116	83.9
2	Kansas	748	611	137	81.7
3	Duke	741	599	142	80.8
4	Kentucky	736	556	180	75.5
5	North Carolina	744	538	206	72.3
6	Memphis	722	522	200	72.3
7	Arizona	713	512	201	71.8
8	Michigan State	729	523	206	71.7
9	Villanova	710	508	202	71.5
10	Louisville	711	507	204	71.3
11	Florida	724	512	212	70.7
12	Syracuse	727	512	215	70.4
13	Wisconsin	712	501	211	70.4
14	BYU	697	487	210	69.9
15	VCU	696	486	210	69.8
16	Ohio State	716	499	217	69.7
17	Xavier	697	485	212	69.6
18	Utah State	690	480	210	69.6
19	Murray State	663	456	207	68.8
20	San Diego State, Belmont	694, 670	477, 460	217, 210	68.7

That tide has turned in the NIL era. While we only have four seasons worth of data, 11 teams -- nearly triple the rate of the pre-NIL era for the preceding two decades -- have won 75% or more of their games during that time. Of those 11, four -- Gonzaga, Drake, Saint Mary's and Grand Canyon -- hail from outside the major conference structure.

Teams like Vermont, North Texas, VCU Charleston and UAB have all posted winning percentages above 70%.

Rank	School	Total games	Wins	Losses	Win %
1	Houston	152	132	20	86.8
2	Duke	150	121	29	80.7
3	Gonzaga	139	112	27	80.6
4	Purdue	147	116	31	78.9
5	Drake	141	111	30	78.7
6	Saint Mary's	138	108	30	78.3
7	UConn	147	115	32	78.2
8	Arizona	145	112	33	77.2
9	Auburn	141	108	33	76.6
10	Grand Canyon	136	103	33	75.7
11	Tennessee	145	109	36	75.2
12	Kansas	144	106	38	73.6
13	Vermont	136	100	36	73.5
14	San Diego State	139	102	37	73.4
15	North Texas	140	102	38	72.9
16	VCU	140	101	39	72.1
17	Alabama	144	103	41	71.5
18	Memphis, Charleston	139	99	36	71.2
19	UAB	146	103	43	70.5
20	North Carolina	146	101	45	69.2

The sample is small and the landscape is continuously shifting, so it's hard to draw sweeping conclusions about the NIL era and its impact on the sport. But it's not so hard to at least glean a few things from the data above, and speculate about what it means in the present and what it portends for the future of college basketball.

Here are my takeaways.

1. Cinderella is not dead

Everyone was ready to sound the alarm bells in March when -- for the first time since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1975 -- every team in the Sweet 16 field was represented by a major conference. But reports of the death of Cinderella are far too premature.

From 2000-21, 20 of of the 50 winningest Division I teams hailed from non-major conferences. (That includes Gonzaga and BYU, neither of which I would have nor do count as mid-majors.) Since then, that number is up to 29.

2. Disparity arising at mid-major level

At one point, there was notable parity between mid-major and high-major programs — and perhaps there still is to a degree — but the gap in winning percentages between the two groups has narrowed considerably. Increasingly, however, the disparity among mid-majors lies between programs with resources and those without.

Drake, for instance, owns the fifth-highest winning percentage in the NIL era among all Division I teams. That success has been anchored by strong coaching hires — first Darian DeVries, and more recently Ben McCollum — and marks a sharp upward trend for a program that, before the NIL era, ranked in the bottom third of the Missouri Valley Conference in winning percentage. (Creighton left the MVC after the 2012-13 season, and Wichita State departed following 2016-17.)

Drake's winning percentage since 2021 is more than 10 percentage points higher than the third-most successful program in the conference and nearly 50 percentage points better than Evansville — which has the most losses in the league over that span. Compared to the pre-NIL era, the gap between the top and bottom of the MVC has only grown.

Highest win % among MVC teams pre-NIL/post-NIL

Rank	Pre-NIL (2000-2020 seasons)	Win %	Post-NIL	Win %
1	Creighton	70.6%	Drake	78.7%
2	Wichita State	68.4%	Loyola Chicago	75.8%
3	Loyola Chicago	61.9%	Bradley	67.4%
4	Northern Iowa	59.1%	Belmont	64.3%
5	Southern Illinois	56.8%	Indiana State	58.0%
6	Missouri State	54.0%	Northern Iowa	56.2%
7	Illinois State	53.5%	Southern Illinois	55.8%
8	Drake	48.5%	Missouri State	50.4%
9	Bradley	47.1%	Murray State	46.4%
10	Indiana State	46.8%	Illinois State	45.9%
11	Valparaiso	46.1%	Illinois-Chicago	42.7%
12	Evansville	44.2%	Valparaiso	36.2%
13	—		Evansville	30.2%

This is not just a cherry-picked sample from one league. Here's the Mountain West below. (Note: Boise State joined in 2011-12; Fresno State and Nevada joined in 2012-13; San Jose State and Utah State joined in 2013-14. Utah and BYU left after 2010-11 and TCU left after 2011-12.)

SDSU, Boise State and Utah State have won more than 71% of their games during the NIL era. Not even the most winningest MWC team in the preceding two decades met that mark. That has come at the expense of rapidly declining success among teams like Air Force and Fresno State, both of which dropped off by at least 15%.

Highest win % among Mountain West teams pre-NIL/post-NIL

Rank	Pre-NIL (2000-2020 seasons)	Win %	Post-NIL	Win %
1	BYU	70.8%	San Diego State	73.4%
2	San Diego State	68.7%	Boise State	71.2%
3	UNLV	61.9%	Utah State	71.0%
4	Nevada	61.4%	Colorado State	66.9%
5	Boise State	61.1%	New Mexico	64.2%
6	Utah State	61.1%	Nevada	59.5%
7	New Mexico	60.8%	UNLV	58.0%
8	Utah State	60.6%	Wyoming	47.3%
9	Fresno State	55.4%	San Jose State	39.8%
10	Colorado State	52.5%	Fresno State	39.4%
11	Wyoming	51.5%	Air Force	30.6%
12	Air Force	46.3%	—
13	TCU	40.5%	—
14	San Jose State	22.1%	—

And just for giggles here's the CAA. Pre-NIL, only two teams from 2000-01 through 2020-21 had winning percentages below 40%. Since 2021-22, that number has more than tripled — with Stony Brook, Northeastern, Monmouth, Elon, Hampton, William & Mary and North Carolina A&T all below win percentages of 40%. This league is a particularly interesting case study in the impact of NIL because of how big a leap Towson, James Madison, Delaware and UNC-Wilmington have made in the league's hierarchy.

Highest win % among CAA teams pre-NIL/post-NIL

Rank	Pre-NIL (2000-2020 seasons)	Win %	Post-NIL	Win %
1	Richmond	75.9%	Charleston	73.3%
2	VCU	69.9%	UNC-Wilmington	72.8%
3	George Mason	64.6%	Towson	65.7%
4	Old Dominion	60.4%	Hofstra	60.9%
5	Charleston	56.9%	Drexel	55.6%
6	Hofstra	54.7%	Delaware	54.0%
7	Northeastern	53.7%	James Madison	51.7%
8	Drexel	50.0%	Campbell	45.3%
9	UNC-Wilmington	49.3%	Stony Brook	39.0%
10	William & Mary	45.7%	Northeastern	38.4%
11	Elon	45.3%	Monmouth	38.4%
12	Delaware	44.2%	Elon	37.2%
13	James Madison	42.1%	Hampton	34.7%
14	Georgia State	40.0%	William & Mary	34.6%
15	Towson	39.4%	North Carolina A&T	28.1%
16	American	25.9%	—

3. The recipe to success in NIL era

Great college coaches can transcend situation and find ways to win -- and win big -- and that seems to be the throughline for many programs regardless of era. Of the 10 winningest teams from the 2000-21 seasons, six had coaches who raked in top-10 salaries per USA Today data collected in 2020.

A seventh, Gonzaga-led Mark Few, is among the most successful coaches in college basketball history. An eighth school, Memphis, was led previously by one of those coaches who landed elsewhere (John Calipari). A ninth school, Arizona, was led by one of the highest-paid coaches (Sean Miller) before scandal late in his tenure. A tenth school, Louisville, was also led by one of the highest-paid coaches who was also wrought with scandal before his ouster in 2021.

Compare that to the current NIL landscape and the ratio of high level success and high level coaching is nearly 1:1. Of the twelve winningest schools in the NIL era, at least five are coached by those with salaries in the top 10 in the sport.

One gigantic takeaway here: Kelvin Sampson is far and away the most underpaid and underappreciated coach in all of college athletics and it is not all that close.

Wins since 2021

School	Win %	Coach salary rank
Houston	86.8	16
Duke	80.7	Private school
Gonzaga	80.6	Private school
Purdue	78.9	13
Drake	78.7	Private school
Saint Mary's	78.3	70
UConn	78.2	3
Arizona	77.2	9
Auburn	76.6	6
Grand Canyon	75.7	68
Tennessee	75.2	7
Kansas	73.6	1