Should the Commanders pay Terry McLaurin top-10 WR money as he approaches the receiver wall at age 30?

Terry McLaurin is one of the most polarizing contract holdouts this offseason, and it's only heating up with Commanders training camp opening July 22. You can see from both sides why a deal has not been struck yet. McLaurin is understandably frustrated with contract talks after a career year during which he racked up 82 catches for 1,096 receiving yards and 13 touchdown catches. The Commanders may not want to pay their top receiver $30-plus million per year considering he turns 30 years old on Sept. 15. 

Let's explore both sides. 

Buyer beware of the age-30 wall

The Commanders are ahead of schedule after Jayden Daniels exploded onto the scene last year, leading Washington to the NFC Championship Game for the first time since 1991. There's a ton of incentive to keep McLaurin happy as they wouldn't want to do anything to impede the development of the franchise's prized possession. 

But it will come at a steep price, making him one of the 10 highest-paid wide receivers in the league at $30-plus million per year. As former NFL agent Joel Corry explained last week, Tee Higgins set the market for No. 2 receivers, so McLaurin's deal should be higher than that.

10 highest-paid WRs in NFL

That can't be a price the Commanders want to stomach if they've heard of the age-30 wall for wide receivers. Age 30 used to be a massive red flag for running backs, but recently the evidence is piling up against wide receivers, too.

McLaurin only has 6,379 career receiving yards (he debuted at age 24 and has only played six seasons), but for the sake of looking at what happens to "elite" receivers as they age, I zeroed in on every player with 10,000 career receiving yards who has debuted this century.

There's 24 players that fit those parameters. There's a clear dropoff from that group when they hit age 30 as their receiving yards per game start to plummet. Only two players from that group averaged more receiving yards in their 30s than 20s: Travis Kelce and Reggie Wayne. Kelce is still active, so he could fall out of that company as he continues to decline. 

10,000-yard receivers to debut since 2000 (by age)

Breaking it down even further, you can see the big disparity between a player's prime (mid-to-late 20s) and decline (30s). The receiving yards per game drops from more than 80 to 60.

These 24 receivers combined for just 36 1,000-yard seasons in their thirties, or 1.5 per player. McLaurin isn't even as good as many of the players on this list.

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Jordan Dajani

Let's zero in even further though. What actually happens when you pay a player top-10 wide receiver money as they approach age 30?

Eight wide receivers have gotten top-10 money at the position with a long-term deal entering their age-29 season or later over the last 10 seasons. 

They had 10 1,000-yard seasons in 22 combined years on those deals

2017 Antonio Brown (4 years, $68 million)

• Traded to Raiders in 2019

2019 Adam Thielen (4 years, $64 million)

• Zero 1,000-yard seasons during deal
• Released in 2023 offseason

2019 Julio Jones (3 years, $66 millionl)

• Last 1,000-yard season in 2019
• Traded to Titans in 2021

2021 Tyler Lockett (4 years, $69 million)

• 63.3 receiving yards per game under that contract (51.5 prior)
• Contract restructured in 2024 and released in 2025 entering final year of deal

2022 Cooper Kupp (3-year, $80 million)

• Signed following triple crown season and Super Bowl win in 2021
• Missed 18 games in last three seasons
• Released this offseason and signed by Seahawks

2022 Davante Adams (5 years, $140 million)

• Three straight 1,000-yard seasons since signing the deal
• Rams will be his third team since signing the deal (Raiders, Jets, Rams)

2022 Stefon Diggs (4 years, $96 million)

• Traded to Texans after second year of four-year deal
• Ended Bills career with 13 straight games under 100 receiving yards
• Tore ACL in 2024 with Texans and signed with Patriots in 2025

2024 Tyreek Hill (3 years, $90 million)

• 959 receiving yards in 2024 (fewest since 2019) after becoming first player in NFL history with back-to-back seasons with 1,700-plus receiving yards

I would not consider any of those eight deals to be a success. You could argue the Adams and Lockett deals went OK. Hill is off to a rough start. The Diggs, Kupp, Jones, Thielen and Brown deals backfired.

There are exceptions to the age-30 wall. Obviously Mike Evans is aging pretty well and Adams is holding his own. But overall, the numbers don't lie. Washington can probably count on one or two more great years from McLaurin, at best.

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Joel Corry

Career year when he finally got a QB

From McLaurin's perspective, he's currently underpaid as the NFL's 17th-highest paid wideout ($22.8 million per year) coming off a career year when he finally was catching passes from a good quarterback. You can't blame him for wanting to maximize his value as he approaches age 30. In some ways, McLaurin's year was actually prolific. 

He was a threat from anywhere on the field last year. He was one of four players with catches on balls traveling each of the following distances through the air last season: behind the line of scrimmage, 0 to 9 air yards, 10 to 19 air yards, 20 to 29 air yards, 30 to 39 air yards, 40 to 49 air yards and 50-plus air yards. The other three were Alec Pierce, Jayden Reed and Brian Thomas Jr. 

He caught 70% of his targets, which is a ridiculous number considering he was a downfield threat that was targeted on average over 13 yards from the line of scrimmage. The further a player gets targeted down the field, the fewer passes they should be catching. This wasn't the case with McLaurin.  

I looked at over 1,200 player seasons since 2010 (represented by the tiny dots in the chart below) and McLaurin was the second player to hit the following marks in a season: catch over 70% of his targets while being targeted 13-plus yards downfield. The other was Brandon Aiyuk. He was equally as surehanded as explosive in 2023, and was involved in last offseason's biggest contract dispute. Aiyuk eventually got a four-year deal worth $120 million total, so $30 million annually. 

In some ways, McLaurin raises the same questions people were asking about Aiyuk last year. Is he a No. 1 wide receiver? How much does he deserve to get paid? Now amplify that with McLaurin, as he's turning 30 in two months. 

McLaurin is one of eight players since 2010 with a catch rate of 70% on 1,000 receiving yards and at least 13 touchdown catches. It's a pretty impressive list. 

70% catch rate, 1,000+ rec yards, 13+ rec TD (last 15 seasons)

McLaurin set a franchise-record with 13 receiving touchdowns last year and caught almost half of Daniels' touchdowns. He even hauled in an absurd 12 of 14 red zone targets for 10 touchdowns. We haven't seen a wideout with that high of a touchdown rate in the red zone since 2011. 

He's been remarkably consistent in his career as one of six players with 900-plus receiving yards in each of his first six seasons, despite catching touchdowns from Taylor Heinicke, Case Keenum, Sam Howell, Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith, Carson Wentz, Kyle Allen, Marcus Mariota, Jacoby Brissett and now Daniels. 

He's a franchise treasure, tied for the most 1,000-yard receiving seasons in Commanders history (five), along with Gary Clark and Art Monk.

Father Time is still undefeated

Both sides have plenty to bring to the negotiating table. For me, I'd hold my ground if I'm the Commanders. There's been way more Pro Bowl-caliber wide receivers hitting a wall around 30 recently (Cooper Kupp, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs all struggled or were hurt last year) than there were those that thrived (Mike Evans and Davante Adams, maybe).

Former Pro Bowl receivers at age 30 or older last season

Father Time is undefeated and has decided to strike elite wideouts at age 30. It comes like a thief in the night, too. Look how quickly guys like Hopkins, Cooper, Jones and others fell off. Buyer beware big time for the Commanders.