What should Commanders expect from Von Miller? How pass rushers have fared this late in their careers

The Washington Commanders made a significant pickup on Wednesday night, signing edge rusher Von Miller to a one-year deal. Miller was released earlier this offseason by the Buffalo Bills, with whom he spent the last three seasons after playing 9.5 seasons with the Denver Broncos and a half-season (that included a Super Bowl victory) with the Los Angeles Rams.

Miller is one of the most successful pass rushers in NFL history. His 129.5 sacks are first among active players and 25th-most all time. Of course, he's not the same player he once was, which makes sense because he's now 36 years old. 

Given the realities of his age and somewhat diminished skill set, it's worth considering what the Commanders defense -- which does have a significant need for pass-rush help -- should reasonably expect out of a player like him. 

And thanks to our friends at Tru Media, we can take a look at the recent history of these types of designated veteran pass rushers -- guys who were 35 years old or older at the start of the season, and who could reasonably be considered edge defenders. When looking into the data, I discovered they've actually fared a bit better than I thought they would have.

On average, this group of players played 424.8 snaps and racked up 6.2 tackles for loss, 4.6 sacks, 10.4 hits and 20.6 hurries, with the latter three totals combining for an average of 31.2 pressures. If the Commanders get that out of Miller this coming season, that would be considered a pretty good result, considering their relative lack of investment in him. (When the breaking-news reporters don't include the dollar amount in their reports of a signing, you know it's not for very much money at all.)

There are, of course, a few caveats to consider here. First, this is a very small sample size. Including Miller's 2024 campaign, the list above includes only 22 player-seasons. But the data on sacks, hits, hurries and pressures in the Tru Media database only goes back to 2017, so that's all we have to work with here. Therefore, this sample includes, for example, Freeney's three-sack season in Seattle and Detroit in 2017, but not his eight-sack season with the Cardinals in 2015 nor his three-sack season with the Falcons in 2016.

Perhaps the biggest caveat to be aware of here, though, is the concept of survivorship bias. The only edge rushers who even get to play this deep into their 30s are the ones who are so good that they're not forced into retirement before they reach that age. So, you'd expect them to be pretty productive, because otherwise they wouldn't even be able to get onto the field. And indeed, a number of them barely got into the field in their final seasons, with five of the 22 playing fewer than 250 snaps, whether due to injury or age-related decline.

Miller specifically has been inconsistent in this late stage of his career. He had six sacks and 32 pressures in 13 games last season, but went without a sack and had only 13 pressures in 2023. (He was also suspended for four games last season for violating the league's personal conduct policy after allegedly assaulting his girlfriend in 2023.) He played that season coming off a significant injury suffered the year before, but it's worth noting that he hasn't rediscovered his peak form. 

However, reaching those heights obviously should not be expected at this stage of his career -- and the Commanders probably aren't him to expecting anyway. If he just achieves the averages of the group of players above, and if his contributions are well-timed, Washington will probably consider it a sound investment.